Red List classification, from population, five year trajectory and survival against peak. Reviewed each census.
495,398licensed vehicles 2025 census
76.8% of the peak fleet remains licensed
167,184
declared SORN
total surviving
peak 644,917 in 2013 ·
−9,542 vehicles a year, five year trend
Population history
Licensed and SORN vehicles at each census. Filters apply to the population, MOT and registration figures together.
LicensedSORNLatest census observationSOURCE DVLA VEH0120 / VEH0220
At the average decline recorded over the latest five years, the licensed fleet would reach zero around 2076.
Illustrative projection only; vehicle populations rarely decline linearly. Late fleets typically flatten as surviving examples enter preservation.
Inside the surviving fleet
AutoCensus parses every DVLA variant description, so the fleet can be read by fuel and specification rather than as one number.
Fuel · share of licensed fleet
First registrations by year
When surviving examples first joined the British fleet.
New registrations
Vehicles first registered each year. A fleet still being sold shows here; a finished one shows only imports.
MOT reliability
DVSA test results for this family, 2005 to 2025.
Pass rate by year
Failure reason
Failures
Share of all tests
Deliberate modification which significantly reduces the original strength, excessive corrosion, severe distortion, a fracture or an inadequate repair of a load bearing member or its supporting structure or supporting panelling within 30cm of any sub-
349,984
4.8%
Deliberate modification which significantly reduces the original strength, excessive corrosion, severe distortion, a fracture or an inadequate repair of a load bearing member or its supporting structure or supporting panelling within 30cm of any sub-
327,116
4.5%
A rear registration plate lamp with any lamp not working
289,200
4.0%
A rigid brake pipe excessively chafed, corroded or damaged
229,082
3.1%
Windscreen or window damaged or seriously discoloured but not adversely affecting driver's view
215,021
2.9%
A wiper blade insecure, missing or in such a condition that it does not clear the windscreen effectively to give the driver an adequate view of the road (through the windscreen) to the left and right sides of the vehicle, as well as to the front
193,397
2.6%
The strength or continuity of the load bearing structure within 30cm of any sub-frame, spring or suspension component mounting (a 'prescribed area') is significantly reduced or inadequately repaired
192,327
2.6%
A rear registration plate lamp or light source missing or inoperative in the case of multiple lamps or light sources
183,997
2.5%
Counted across every recorded test, 2005 to 2025. Advisories are excluded.
Where the Transit remains
Based on MOT test locations, 2025. Test location is a proxy: a vehicle is counted where it was last tested, not where it is kept.
Population figures count vehicles recorded as licensed or SORN in the DVLA quarterly extract. Figures before 2014 cover Great Britain only. Vehicles are grouped into this family by the DVLA GenModel key shown above, with routing rules for known inconsistencies.
Variant figures are parsed from raw DVLA model descriptions and the original string is always retained. Blank transmission fields are shown as manual because DVLA records the field for automatic vehicles.
MOT figures count tests, not vehicles, and geographic figures count each vehicle at its most recent test location. The decline projection is a straight line fitted to the latest five years and is illustrative only.